Monday, January 31, 2011

Predictions

Published in 1998, "The Fortune Sellers" examines predictions and the business of predicting the future. In chapter seven, entitled "The Futurists", author William A. Sherden examines both successful and unsuccessful predictions that relate to societal change. Among the few successful predictions which the author discusses are those made by what he terms"the trend spotters".

John Naisbitt is one of the trend spotters the author discusses. In 1982 Naisbitt published the book "Megatrends 2000" which examined ten trends that he believed would shape the future world. Seven of his trends did not pan out at all. The remaining three successful trends were those of (1) the growth of an information society, (2) increasing globalization, and (3) north to south migration.

As the Sherden states, all three trends already had the groundwork laid for success when Naisbitt wrote about them in 1982. Regarding the growth of an information society in particular, the use of mainframe and mini computers had already exploded commercially. And just a year before, in 1981, IBM brought out the IBM PC which was to revolutionize computing and information technology.

Sherden criticizes Naisbitt's prediction for the growth of an information society saying that Naisbitt "greatly overstated the impact of information technology." However, Sherden's criticism proves to shortsighted in 2011, as the advance of technology in the years since 1998 have brought forth a tidal wave of smart cell phones and other smart devices, as well as an explosion in the scope and capability of The Internet and World Wide Web.

Sherden also did not take into account the pace at which globalization would speed the offshoring of traditional manufacturing industries, thus moving the world ever faster into a post-industrial, information society. Technological advancement and economic considerations, i.e. globalization, have combined to bring us further into Naisbitt's true information society.

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